The unfortunate qualifier is that a) Monmouth's sample size is half as large, and b) all the respondents are registered voters in New Jersey, Monmouth's own state, rather than a nationwide sample.
Christie draws some heavy negatives among voters in his own state, even among Republicans: 14% of Republicans would be more likely to vote for Trump with Christie on the ticket, but 23% would be less likely. For Millennial voters of whatever affiliation, those figures are 2% (more likely) and 49% (less). The largest percentages of those polled answered "No Effect." Adding Booker to the Clinton ticket does much better among Democrats and the youth contingent.
One Reason I Love/Hate These Polls: False Hope
Yes, false hope. For just one example: According to at least one poll In 2012, as late as September, the Stein-Honkala ticket was supposed to receive close to 2% of the vote in Texas and about the same nationwide. Her final tally was 0.31% in Texas, 0.34% nationwide. (Sorry, can't find a link.)
A gap of 1.7 percentage points is well within the margin of error, and it doesn't make much difference if you're expecting 60% or even 40%. Obviously, the closer you get to 50%—or 5% to maintain state ballot access or gain federal funds—the more significant small numbers can look.
After all these years of polling, we still don't have a solid answer as to whether substantial differences between opinion polls and actual results for independent and minor-party candidates come down to:
- polling samples not being truly reflective of the voting public;
- those third-party sympathies not lasting all the way to the voting booth, with voters chickening out at the last minute and voting for their preferred major party;
- election officials cooking the numbers;
- some combination of the above; or
- some other explanation.
UPDATE: a paragraph from P-Diddie for which I am particularly grateful today.
And pay no heed to Debbie Downers who say that the Greens and Libs always poll higher than they actually wind up with on Election Day -- this isn't going to be a normal year -- or that dreaming big on the part of alternate candidates and parties is something to be mocked. That kind of discouragement is not how we raise our children and grandchildren; it's not even how our mayor manages the city.