Category: Gary Johnson

#DemExit Not Yet Reflected in Polls

19/7/2016

Even with the news of Bernie Sanders endorsing Hillary Clinton's candidacy, and the resulting stampede of Sanders's supporters toward Jill Stein and the Greens, the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Stein still hovering in the vicinity of 5% nationwide.

Any bets as to whether that number increases substantially, and how much, in the next few weeks?

The NBC/SM poll is notable for having a considerably larger sample size, and thus a smaller margin of error, than most of the academic polls like Quinnipiac and Monmouth. That sample does skew affluent and white, since, per conventional wisdom, actual voting does as well. About 8% of the respondents identified as "Black," and about the same as "Hispanic/Latino," whereas both of these ethnicities compose nearly twice that percentage of the total US population.

As we have noted previously:

Five percent nationwide will be enough to qualify the Green or Libertarian Party for federal funds for 2020.
Five percent statewide is sufficient to guarantee a minor party a ballot line in Texas for the next even-year election.

Sadly, these wankers at UT neglected to include "The Green Jill Stein" in their presidential preference questions. So we in Texas may have to wait to find out whether Stein is even close to 5% here. The good news is that the "Someone Else" column is at 14%, about twice the number for "The Libertarian Gary Johnson."

Mystery & intrigue, y'all. Could Dr. Stein be that "someone else" for, say, 7% of the voters?

This Week's Monkey: Johnson at 9%, Stein 5%

14/6/2016

All the staff at dbcgreentx.net hope that your Flag Day has not sucked too awfully, considering the horrible news from Orlando that keeps revealing new wrinkles and the related revival of gun debates on Facebook.

Here are NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results released today. They are showing Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson polling at 9%, Green candidate Jill Stein at 5%, That 5% is a magical number for third-party campaigns, since 5% nationwide in the presidential race qualifies a party for federal funds in the next cycle.

The Libertarians have been drooling loudly over the prospect of reaching 15%, as Rachel Maddow has reported. That level in five reputable polls (whichever those are) gets your candidate past the gate-keepers at the Commission on Presidential Debates.

There is only the one question about preferences in a four-way race. But given only Clinton and Trump as voting choices, 20% choose "somebody else."

The figure for Stein represents an increase from the 4% showing last week. All the percentages are rounded, or course, so it may be a matter of jumping from 4.4% to 4.6%, with the usual margins of error thrown in.

Public Policy Polling Adds Johnson & Stein

9/6/2016

Here's the goods. This time, in Pennsylvania, Gary Johnson gets 6% and Jill Stein 3%.

I don't expect a huge amount of consistency among polls in different states, even neighboring states like Pennsylvania and New Jersey. But the polls we have seen thus far show a great degree of consistency on several questions:

Who does better against Trump: Clinton or Sanders?
How do the number in a two-way contest compare with a four-way?
How bell-shaped is the ideological curve of the respondents? (The bulk of respondents self-identify as Moderate, with fewer as Somewhat Liberal or Conservative, and even fewer as Very Liberal or Conservative. This is hard for a Libertarian to answer if those are all the choices.)

Stein's 3% is reduced to 1% in a four-way race with Sanders, Trump, and Johnson.

Here is the question on which all the media coverage should focus, however:

#DemExit Not Yet Reflected in Polls

This Week's Monkey: Johnson at 9%, Stein 5%

Public Policy Polling Adds Johnson & Stein

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