It's at least partly in how you interpret it, of course. It's also partly the smallish sample sizes. But by gum, the Public Policy Polling national survey for August 2016 has Jill Stein rising from 2% in May, June and July to 4%.
The 4% figure complements this week's NBC News/SurveyMonkey results. Stein maintains a 5% standing on NBC/SM, which uses much larger sample sizes and thus attains a smaller margin of error. The two polls differ widely on Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, who earns 11% on NBC/SM and a mere 6% on PPP.
The 4% figure complements this week's NBC News/SurveyMonkey results. Stein maintains a 5% standing on NBC/SM, which uses much larger sample sizes and thus attains a smaller margin of error. The two polls differ widely on Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, who earns 11% on NBC/SM and a mere 6% on PPP.
I'm unilaterally declaring Stein's 4% symptomatic of a post-convention bounce, the first clear sign of such that I have detected. Even taking the margin of error (3.3%) into account, this is an impressive gain.
In its ethnographic breakdown, PPP's Hispanic respondents went 6% for Stein; African Americans, 5%; Whites, 3%; and Others, 13%.
That "Other" category appears to be more open to voting outside the duopoly: Others also went 12% for Johnson. Among African Americans, Johnson is actually polling close to 0% lower than Trump's 3% and the 12% undecided.
Evan McMullin, whose name likely won't appear on ballots in most states, gets 1% overall. It will be interesting to see if his votes spoil a potential Trump victory in a swing state.
Of course, PPP's inclusion of one or more smart-ass questions in its surveys has become its trademark. This time out, there are more than a dozen, including favorability face-offs between Donald Trump and:
There is also a question on favoring or opposing building a wall along the Atlantic Ocean to keep out Muslim immigrants. 18% of all respondents support that proposal, and 13% answered "not sure." These are probably the same 18% who believe that ACORN (may it rest in peace) will steal the election for Hillary Clinton.
Real Clear Politics accompanies its listing of PPP with a (D) because PPP is by its own admission a Democratic company. That bias takes nothing away from the accuracy of PPP's predictions.
In its ethnographic breakdown, PPP's Hispanic respondents went 6% for Stein; African Americans, 5%; Whites, 3%; and Others, 13%.
That "Other" category appears to be more open to voting outside the duopoly: Others also went 12% for Johnson. Among African Americans, Johnson is actually polling close to 0% lower than Trump's 3% and the 12% undecided.
Evan McMullin, whose name likely won't appear on ballots in most states, gets 1% overall. It will be interesting to see if his votes spoil a potential Trump victory in a swing state.
Of course, PPP's inclusion of one or more smart-ass questions in its surveys has become its trademark. This time out, there are more than a dozen, including favorability face-offs between Donald Trump and:
- Junk Mail
- Mosquitoes
- Duke University
- Middle Seats on Airplanes
- Bubonic Plague
- Carnies
- Personal Injury Lawyers
- Ryan Lochte
- Public Restrooms
- Bedbugs
- People Who Leave Voicemails in the Year 2016 (guilty!)
There is also a question on favoring or opposing building a wall along the Atlantic Ocean to keep out Muslim immigrants. 18% of all respondents support that proposal, and 13% answered "not sure." These are probably the same 18% who believe that ACORN (may it rest in peace) will steal the election for Hillary Clinton.
Real Clear Politics accompanies its listing of PPP with a (D) because PPP is by its own admission a Democratic company. That bias takes nothing away from the accuracy of PPP's predictions.
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